Southland home sales at five-year low, single-digit appreciation

May 16, 2006

La Jolla,CA----Home sales in Southern California decelerated in April to their slowest pace since 2001, the result of higher mortgage interest rates and less buyer urgency. Prices rose at a single-digit appreciation rate for the first time in more than four years, a real estate information service reported.

A total of 24,748 new and resale homes sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties in April. That was down 16.1 percent from 29,509 in March and down 21.3 percent from 31,431 in April last year.

The year-over-year sales decline was the steepest since April 1995, when home purchases slowed 24.0 percent. Last month's sales count was the lowest for any April since 24,120 homes were sold in April 2001. DataQuick's statistics, which go back to 1988, show an average April for the nineteen years saw 23,660 sales.

"March and April have shown us that the boom phase of this cycle is behind us, so now it's just a question of how the cycle ends. Right now it looks like changes in the real estate market are happening gradually. But there's a lot of uncertainty among analysts regarding the effect of higher interest rates and how fast the economy is generating demand in regional markets," said Marshall Prentice, DataQuick president.

The median price paid for a home in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties was $485,000 last month. That was down 0.2 percent from a revised $486,000 in March and up 9.0 percent from $445,000 in April a year ago.

The 9.0 percent year-over-year increase in the April median price marked the first time appreciation was in single digits since November 2001, when the $238,000 median rose 9.2 percent from $218,000 the year before. Due to a calculating error, the regional median was misreported last month. The medians for all individual counties were correct.

DataQuick, a subsidiary of Vancouver-based MacDonald Dettwiler and Associates, monitors real estate activity nationwide and provides information to consumers, educational institutions, public agencies, lending institutions, title companies and industry analysts.

The typical monthly mortgage payment that Southland buyers committed themselves to paying was $2,354 last month, up from $2,315 for the previous month, and up from $2,076 for April a year ago. Adjusted for inflation, current payments are about 7.2 percent above typical payments in the spring of 1989, the peak of the prior real estate cycle.

Indicators of market distress are still largely absent. Financing with adjustable-rate mortgages has declined in recent months. Foreclosure activity is edging up from its bottom, but is still low. Down payment sizes are stable, as are flipping rates and non-owner occupied buying activity, DataQuick reported.

All Homes	No Sold Apr-05	No Sold Apr-06	Pct. Chg	Median Apr-05	Median Apr-06	Pct. Chg
Los Angeles	10,299	8,364	-18.8%	$447	$508	13.6%
Orange County	4,547	3,276	-28.0%	$576	$628	9.0%
San Diego	5,345	3,705	-30.7%	$484	$505	4.3%
Riverside	5,718	5,006	-12.5%	$374	$409	9.4%
San Bernardino	4,007	3,506	-12.5%	$304	$360	18.4%
Ventura	1,515	891	-41.2%	$529	$584	10.4%
So. California	31,431	24,748	-21.3%	$445	$485	9.0%

Source: DQNews.com

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