Bay Area home prices edge down, slowest sales in eleven years

February 15, 2007

La Jolla, CA.----Home sales in the Bay Area fell for the 24th month in a row in January as prices slipped to their lowest level in a year and a half, a real estate information service reported.

A total of 6,168 new and resale houses and condos sold in the nine- county Bay Area last month. That was down 26.3 percent from a revised 8,372 in December, and down 4.1 percent from a revised 6,434 for January last year, according to DataQuick Information Systems.

A decline from December to January is normal for the season. Sales last month were the lowest for any January since 1996 when 5,504 homes were sold. The average January since 1988 has had 6,455 sales. Last month's year-over-year decline was the most moderate since March 2005 when sales fell 2.7 percent. Year-over-year sales declines peaked last July at 32.4 percent.

Starting with the January numbers, DataQuick has changed the way it identifies so-called "arm's-length" transactions – normal deals with a buyer and seller and money changing hands. The change, the first since DataQuick began publishing statistics in 1989, takes advantage of significant data enhancements the past 18 years. While the revised numbers increase historic monthly sales counts by about ten percent, trends over time remain virtually unchanged. More about the change can be found at our Methodology Changes page.

The median price paid for a Bay area home was a revised $601,000 last month, down 2.8 percent from a revised $618,000 for December, and down 1.5 percent from a revised $610,000 for January last year. Year-over-year price changes have been negative three of the last four months, ending a 57-month rise that started in December 2001. Last month's median was the lowest since $597,000 in May 2005.

The revised historic monthly median prices have changed little - about one percent, on average.

DataQuick, a subsidiary of Vancouver-based MacDonald Dettwiler and Associates, monitors real estate activity nationwide and provides information to consumers, educational institutions, public agencies, lending institutions, title companies and industry analysts.

The typical monthly mortgage payment that Bay Area buyers committed themselves to paying was $2,804 last month, down from $2,828 the previous month and down from $2,812 a year ago. Adjusted for inflation, current payments are 11.6 percent above typical payments in the spring of 1989, the peak of the prior real estate cycle. They are 12.1 percent below the current cycle's peak last June.

Indicators of market distress are still at a moderate level. Financing with adjustable-rate mortgages is declining slightly. Foreclosure activity is rising but is still in the normal range. Down payment sizes are stable and flipping rates and non-owner occupied buying activity is down, DataQuick reported.

All Homes	No Sold Jan-06	No Sold Jan-07	Pct. Chg	Median Jan-06	Median Jan-07	Pct. Chg
Alameda	1,316	1,279	-2.8%	$565,000	$570,000	0.9%
Contra Costa	1,298	1,158	-10.8%	$575,000	$550,000	-4.3%
Marin	224	195	-12.9%	$754,500	$830,000	10.0%
Napa	111	98	-11.7%	$580,000	$542,500	-6.5%
Santa Clara	1,618	1,606	-0.7%	$650,000	$660,000	1.5%
San Francisco	369	402	8.9%	$745,000	$750,000	0.7%
San Mateo	482	499	3.5%	$725,000	$735,000	1.4%
Solano	544	468	-14.0%	$470,500	$430,000	-8.6%
Sonoma	472	463	-1.9%	$569,000	$510,000	-10.4%
Bay Area	6,434	6,168	-4.1%	$610,000	$601,000	-1.5%

Source: DataQuick Information Systems, www.DQNews.com

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